New UC Davis Research Examines the Future of California Education

A new body of research seeks to inform election discourse with greater insights into local and statewide educational realities. Getting Down to Facts III, a research initiative led by the Stanford SCALE Initiative, brings together leading experts across California to examine the biggest challenges facing schools—and the policies that could define their future.

Sixteen UC Davis researchers contributed eight of the 55 total technical reports, placing their work at the center of educational debates that could influence policymakers, advocates, and voters in the months ahead.

Does Your Math Pathway Make a Difference? High School Mathematics and College Outcomes

Kramer Dykeman, Jacob Jackson, Michal Kurlaender, Beryl Larson, and Sherrie Reed

Researchers highlight the relationship between high school math and college attendance, where students who take more years of high school math, and at advanced levels, are more likely to attend college, particularly four-year universities. This relationship is stronger for students who are historically underrepresented in higher education, suggesting that expanded access to advanced math courses could play an important role in narrowing college enrollment gaps statewide.

The State of Chronic Absenteeism in California: Projections, Reasons, and Solutions

Kevin Gee and Peter Yu

Although pandemic-era absenteeism has dropped, nearly one in five California students still miss more than 10% of the school year. Researchers argue that reversing these high levels of chronic absenteeism will require more than attendance campaigns. They call for sustained coordination and greater investments to address broader challenges—such as financial instability or transportation access—that students and families face outside the classroom.

Assessing Local Control and Accountability Plans (LCAPs) Using Generative AI

Jacob Hibel and Xander Beberman

Researchers developed a new AI-powered tool that can turn California school districts’ accountability plans into searchable, structured data. The tool allows researchers to analyze how schools set priorities and spend public funds, while giving policymakers and communities a clearer picture of how districts are addressing issues like equity, student support, and academic improvement.

High School Coursetaking in California: A Primer

Michal Kurlaender, Sherrie Reed, Alexandria Hurtt, Jacob Jackson, Beryl Larson, and Kramer Dykeman

Researchers describe the types of college and career prep courses students take in high school, including Advanced Placement, dual enrollment, career technical education and advanced math. These courses influence the opportunities that follow high school graduation and whether students attend college. The study also shows that access to advanced coursework still varies widely depending on students’ backgrounds and schools.

Mandatory Regionalization and Its Limits: How California Districts Experience and Navigate Special Education Governance

Tye Ripma and Patrick McClellan

Researchers examined California’s regional system for funding and coordinating special education services, uncovering wide differences in how support is delivered to school districts. The study reveals that districts often build their own workarounds when regional coordination falls short, and points to policy changes that could strengthen transparency and equitable access to services.

Who Stays, Who Leaves: Five-year Retention Patterns by Teacher Entry Pathways

Thomas M. Smith and Yiwang Li

Researchers found that California is increasingly relying on underprepared teachers to fill classrooms, with many new educators entering the profession through emergency permits rather than traditional student teaching pathways. The study also reveals stark inequities in who enters the profession under the most challenging conditions and who stays. In particular, Black teachers are disproportionately placed in high-need schools and face the highest rates of early-career turnover.

Navigating the Transition to College: LGBTQ+ Students’ High School Experiences and Academic Plans

Christina Sun, Alexandria Hurtt, and Michal Kurlaender

A statewide survey of California high school seniors found that LGBTQ+ students experience significantly higher rates of bullying and discrimination than their cisgender heterosexual peers. While these experiences can shape LGBTQ+ students’ transition to college, many still report strong academic ambitions, highlighting both their resilience and the need for schools to strengthen protections and support systems.

Imagining the Educational Futures for Black Children in California

Maisha Winn, Lawrence Winn, Misbah Naseer, Jeremy Prim, and Andre Anderson-Thompson

Drawing from interviews and community foresight workshops, researchers explored how Black parents define educational success and what they hope schools will provide for their children in the years ahead. The findings highlight growing concerns over inequity, displacement, and access to culturally affirming education, while also documenting how Black families are organizing to push for schools that better reflect and support their communities.

Together, these reports paint a fuller picture of the challenges facing California schools and the people working every day to improve educational opportunities for all. “The future of California depends on the strength of its education system,” said Tom Smith, professor and dean of the UC Davis School of Education. “These studies highlight the real experiences of students, families, teachers, and school leaders, while providing research-driven insights to transform educational policies, practices, and outcomes across the state.”